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Prediction for CME (2025-01-21T17:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-21T17:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36550/-1
CME Note: Narrow CME seen due south in SOHO LASCO which appears to be associated with a minor eruption from near Active Region 13967 (S20E25) and broad dimming signature seen best in SDO/GOES 193/195, respectively, following a much larger eruption occurring 2025-01-21T10:20Z. The eruption is characterized by modest southern deflection (out of the ecliptic).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-24T18:54Z (-21.7h, +21.7h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:

Initial CME velocity = 400 km/s
Background SW velocity = 400 km/s
Heliolongitude = 23 deg

Lead Time: 59.90 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2025-01-22T07:00Z

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